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Do ClinVar Pathogenic Variants in SERPINA1 Sit at Lower gnomAD Population Frequencies Than Benign Variants?

Exact input: not recorded — legacy attempt

Execution template: not recorded — legacy attempt

↻ script error · Jul 16 annotation

execution observatory

Attempt 1 of 1

null result Completed · publish stage
committed record

immutable execution contract

exact input
not recorded — legacy attempt
execution template
not recorded — legacy attempt
  1. scope
  2. dataset
  3. run
  4. write
  5. review
  6. correct
  7. publish

latest committed step

post publication ANNOTATION (non_reproducing_provenance, flagged via self_rerun_harness): Self re-run on Jul 16, 2026 did not reproduce (script error). analysis script did not run clean (exit 2) Pending human review.

correction_recorded · notice · observed · reproduction harness

committed steps
33
accepted / verified
6
warnings / rejects
2
elapsed
7 minutes
last recorded
tokens recorded
not recorded
data downloaded
320 KB

canonical execution ledger

Every committed step

Public execution facts only — never private model reasoning, prompts, or raw process output.

attempt-1-ledger hal9000/run/b855a4ab/1 chronological · persisted · archived Reload
  1. 001 orchestration run_queued run · queued · rails Execution attempt 1 queued.
  2. 002 orchestration investigation_selected notice · observed · rails Started manually by an administrator.
  3. 003 orchestration run_claimed run · claimed · rails Engine claimed this execution attempt.
  4. 004 orchestration runner_launch_authorized run · started · rails Execution lease acquired; the runner may launch once.
  5. 005 orchestration wrapper_started run · started · wrapper Opencode process started for this exact attempt.
  6. 006 scoping scope_started action · started · agent Beginning scoping for execution attempt 1.
  7. 007 scoping scope_proposed gate · proposed · agent Proposed one falsifiable scoped question using the supported reference analysis.
  8. 008 data dataset_search_started action · started · agent Searching one bounded zero-auth public source.
  9. 009 data dataset_search_started action · started · agent Searching one bounded zero-auth public source.
  10. 010 data dataset_search_started action · started · agent Searching one bounded zero-auth public source.
  11. 011 data dataset_proposed artifact · proposed · agent Proposed a bounded dataset provenance record for terminal validation.
  12. 012 data dataset_proposed artifact · proposed · agent Proposed a bounded dataset provenance record for terminal validation.
  13. 013 data dataset_proposed artifact · proposed · agent Proposed a bounded dataset provenance record for terminal validation.
  14. 014 analysis analysis_started action · started · agent Executing the allowlisted analysis with a fixed seed.
  15. 015 analysis analysis_observed metric · observed · agent Observed the analysis result and measured its process duration.
  16. 016 writing draft_started action · started · agent Building the initial paper from committed evidence.
  17. 017 writing draft_written artifact · proposed · agent Wrote the initial paper draft from the available evidence.
  18. 018 review review_started action · started · agent Starting an adversarial review against the available source artifacts.
  19. 019 review review_observed gate · observed · agent Observed the review severity counts.
  20. 020 correction correction_started action · started · agent Starting evidence-preserving corrections from the review report.
  21. 021 correction correction_observed gate · observed · agent Observed correction resolution counts and the publication gate.
  22. 022 publishing publication_started action · started · agent Assembling the corrected artifacts for terminal validation.
  23. 023 correction ingest_rejected gate · rejected · rails Terminal payload rejected: dataset 3 access URL contains an invalid public URL
  24. 024 scoping scope_accepted gate · accepted · rails Accepted the run's scoped research question.
  25. 025 data datasets_accepted artifact · accepted · rails Accepted 3 dataset provenance records for this run.
  26. 026 analysis analysis_accepted artifact · accepted · rails Accepted the executed analysis and its server-derived script hash.
  27. 027 publishing figure_accepted artifact · accepted · rails Accepted the validated PNG figure for this run.
  28. 028 publishing paper_accepted artifact · accepted · rails Accepted the run-owned paper for publication.
  29. 029 publishing run_published run · completed · rails Execution attempt 1 published with outcome null_result.
  30. 030 orchestration wrapper_duration metric · observed · wrapper Measured opencode process duration.
  31. 031 orchestration wrapper_exited run · observed · wrapper Opencode process exited.
  32. 032 reproduction reproduction_recorded gate · failed · reproduction harness Deterministic reproduction check #1: Script error.
  33. 033 post publication correction_recorded notice · observed · reproduction harness ANNOTATION (non_reproducing_provenance, flagged via self_rerun_harness): Self re-run on Jul 16, 2026 did not reproduce (script error). analysis script did not run clean (exit 2) Pending human review.

exact-attempt artifacts

Artifacts & paper

Nothing on this attempt is borrowed from a newer run.

ℹ This paper carries an annotation. Jul 16, 2026 · non reproducing provenance · flagged via self rerun harness. Self re-run on Jul 16, 2026 did not reproduce (script error). analysis script did not run clean (exit 2) Pending human review.

The original paper, run-log, and provenance below are unchanged — this notice is added to the record, never a replacement.

Abstract

hal9000/run/b855a4ab/attempt/1 · published Jul 16, 2026 · p = 3.97e-01 (Mann-Whitney U)

p = 3.97e-01 (Mann-Whitney U)

⚠ This paper no longer reproduces — the analysis no longer runs. On Jul 16, 2026 HAL re-ran the published analysis from its provenance block. analysis script did not run clean (exit 2). The original run-log and provenance are unchanged; this annotation is the honest record.

We tested whether variants classified as pathogenic or likely pathogenic by ClinVar for the SERPINA1 gene have lower population allele frequencies in gnomAD than ClinVar-classified benign or likely benign variants. After merging 316 classified ClinVar records with 1,616 gnomAD variants via genomic locus (chrom:pos), 202 variants overlapped (38 pathogenic, 164 benign). A two-sided Mann-Whitney U test on allele frequencies yielded U = 2841.5, p = 0.397, which is not statistically significant at the 0.05 threshold. While the median allele frequency of pathogenic variants (3.91 × 10⁻⁶) was numerically lower than that of benign variants (5.58 × 10⁻⁶), this difference did not reach statistical significance. Our results do not provide evidence that ClinVar pathogenic variants in SERPINA1 are systematically rarer in the general population than benign variants, though the small sample size limits statistical power.

Computed figure for Do ClinVar Pathogenic Variants in SERPINA1 Sit at Lower gnomAD Population Frequencies Than Benign Variants?
Figure · computed from the named dataset, not illustrative.

[withheld: unsafe public value]

Provenance · exact attempt · re-runnable
attempt 1 · exact retained execution
exact input not recorded — legacy attempt
execution template not recorded — legacy attempt
dataset Ensembl REST (ENSG00000197249) · 14:94376745-94391024 (SERPINA1, GRCh38)
dataset gnomAD r4 GraphQL (ENSG00000197249) · 14:94376747-94390693 (SERPINA1, GRCh38)
dataset ClinVar (NCBI E-utilities) (SERPINA1[gene]) · SERPINA1 gene, 500 records (retmax=500)
script sha256 722559d586880cac990f8a5552986b941d6a36459b17297e290a1bff24a3a12d
seed 1234
app git sha edcf67e94c93ee9002c7a762caa46984c9aff7c1
statistic {"gene":"SERPINA1","seed":1234,"reference_template":"clinvar_gnomad_ensembl","join_key":"genomic locus chrom:pos (ref/alt-agnostic)","n_clinvar_classified":316,"n_merged_with_gnomad_af":202,"n_pathogenic":38,"n_benign":164,"outcome":"success","test":"Mann-Whitney U (two-sided) on allele frequency","u_statistic":2841.5,"p_value":0.39748591672845146,"median_af_pathogenic":0.00000391,"median_af_benign":0.00000558,"direction":"pathogenic rarer","significant_at_0.05":false,"headline_statistic":"p = 3.97e-01 (Mann-Whitney U)"}
reproduction script error · re-run Jul 16, 2026
corrections annotation

deterministic re-runs of this exact attempt

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  1. exact run attempt 1

    Reproduction attempt 1

    failed

    The executor stopped without committing a scientific verdict.

    queued
    claimed
    started
    finished
    executor
    host
    duration
    10 s
    download
    0 Bytes
    exit status
    1

    executor error · wrapper exit nonzero

    Reproduction wrapper exited non-zero before committing a verdict.

    No scientific verdict was committed for this executor attempt.

  2. exact run attempt 1

    Reproduction attempt 2

    completed

    The executor committed a scientific verdict.

    queued
    claimed
    started
    finished
    executor
    host
    duration
    36 s
    download
    0 Bytes
    exit status
    2

    linked scientific check

    Check #1 · script error · p value

    script error

    analysis script did not run clean (exit 2)

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